Did Trump Blink? | Econbrowser
I see repeated references to this assertion. As Jason Furman points out, relative to “Liberation Day” announcement, he didn’t, insofar as the increase...
Ten Days that Shook the Financial World … But for What?
A recap:
For context, the 4/5 observation on EPU is the second highest value since 1985 (the first highest is 1/9).
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Alternative Business Cycle Indicators: Coincident Index, VMT, Early Benchmark NFP
Coincident index growth slows from 4.1% m/m AR to 1.7% in February.
Figure 1: Implied Nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (bold blue), civilian employment...
The Recession Start Predicted (Post-Pause)
While the odds on a recession in 2025 have dropped from 69% to 54% in the wake of Trump’s 90 day pause, the...
A Real-Time US Effective Tariff Rate Measure
From Paweł Skrzypczyński, “Average effective tariff rate in the U.S.”:
presents historical data on U.S. average effective tariff rate together with The Budget Lab...
*Micro* becomes *Macro* and Macro-Financial Interactions
Gianluca Benigno points out that large and pervasive tariffs will have macro implications that spur deleveraging and a decline in R** in a...
Stay Tuned for Dollar Share of World FX Reserves
Miran et al. want to end exorbitant privilege and the dollar’s role as a safe asset.
Figure 1: US dollar reserves as share of...
