Guest Contribution: “How to Forecast a Recession”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the...
Nowcast vs. Nowcast: Tariff-Jumping Imports as a Factor
Goldman Sachs puts Q1 growth at 0.1% q/q AR close to adjusted GDPNow, while NY Fed indicates 2.58%. The St. Louis Fed “news”...
Annotated Graph of SP500 and Dollar
Including “Liberation Day” and “termination”, down 15%, and 7.9% (log terms) relative to post-inauguration peaks (through 4/22 close).
Figure 1: S&P500 (blue, left log...
Interview with Robert Barro: Empirical Macroeconomics
Jon Hartley serves as interlocutor in “Revisiting Empirical Macroeconomics with Robert Barro” (Hoover Institution, Capitalism and Freedom Podcast, March 25, 2025, audio and...
JD Vance Meets the Pope
Vice President JD Vance, a Catholic, met Pope Francis on April 20, the day before the latter’s death. The meeting with the enfeebled...
The Silver (-Haired) Economy – Conversable Economist
In its most recent World Economic Outlook report, the IMF includes a chapter on “The Rise of the Silver Economy: Global Implications of...
IMF, WSJ Forecasts for 2025 US Growth Revised Down
In today’s newly released IMF World Economic Outlook, 2025 Q4/Q4 growth revised down by 0.9 ppts from January. Compare against WSJ mean revised...
