Adam Smith on Those Who Wish to Dominate Others
One of my long-ago professors–not an economist, and not a political conservative– sometimes said that Adam Smith was just flat out deeper and...
Random Observations | Econbrowser
Inversion continues, with 10yr-3mo at same level as on 12/`6. VIX at 45. Kalshi odds on a recession at 68%, highest since trading...
Kenneth Arrow on Health Care: It’s Not What You Think
As a health reform discussion lengthens, the probability that someone will cite Kenneth Arrow approaches 1. Close behind is the probability that this...
Near Horizon Recession Probability | Econbrowser
I run a probit regression of a NBER peak-to-trough recession dummy on contemporaneous Michigan sentiment (FRED variable UMCSENT, and final reading for March)...
FT-Booth March Survey and the FOMC SEP: GDP’s Trajectory
The March FT-Booth survey is out; median q4/q4 growth for 2025 is 1.6%, down from 2.3% in the December survey. The FOMC’s Summary...
Business Cycle Indicators for February: What Does It Mean When Consumption Falls while Income...
Personal income growth at +0.8% m/m vs +0.4% Bloomberg consensus, while consumption growth is +0.4% m/m vs 0.5% consensus. GDPNow adjusted for gold...
GS: From 25% Probability to Recession Call?
From Goldman Sachs, Sunday evening:
We are lowering our 2025 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and raising our 12-month recession probability from 35%...
The North American Trade Bloc at Risk
The “multipolar” world has been a reasonably popular framework for thinking about the global economy. The idea was that the world economy was...
2 April 2025: An Event Study
Odds of a recession in 2025:
Source: Kalshi, 2 April 2025, 8pm CT.
Polymarket confirms:
Source: Polymarket, 2 April 2025, 8pm CT.
The recession has been moved...
Snapshots about the Federal Workforce
I saw some mention that there has been a sharp rise in federal civilian employment in 2023 and 2024. When I tracked down...
