“Recession” Odds | Econbrowser
Two observations: (1) market odds of a downturn have rebounded today, and (2) the odds are very similar across two platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket),...
Instantaneous CPI Inflation | Econbrowser
Rates are down, but not as far down as in mid-2024.
Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for headline CPI (blue), core CPI (brown), per Eeckhout...
A Real-Time US Effective Tariff Rate Measure
From Paweł Skrzypczyński, “Average effective tariff rate in the U.S.”:
presents historical data on U.S. average effective tariff rate together with The Budget Lab...
Bill McBride/Calculated Risk on “Recession Watch”
Yesterday:
I’m concerned about tariff policy impacting the economy. Usually fiscal, executive and trade policy decisions wouldn’t lead to an immediate recession, but these...
Consumption | Econbrowser
Aggregate consumption drops as income ex-current transfers rises. The pattern of disaggregated consumption pattern suggests tariff-induced front-loading drove some of the support for...
2025Q1 Stall Speed? Tracking and Betting on GDP Growth, Retail Sales Composition
GDPNow at essentially zero growth. Industrial production, retail sales (control) surprise downside.
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), WSJ January survey mean (blue), WSJ April...
2024Q4 GDP, GDO, GDP+, and Nowcasted Consumption Crash
Third release on GDP. We now have a reading on GDO, as well as an updated view on GDP+.
Figure 1: GDP (black), GDO...
