2025Q1 Stall Speed? Tracking and Betting on GDP Growth, Retail Sales Composition
GDPNow at essentially zero growth. Industrial production, retail sales (control) surprise downside.
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), WSJ January survey mean (blue), WSJ April...
When Will EJ Antoni End His Recession Call?
EJ Antoni concludes we’re in a recession, and elsewhere, have been since 2022. On the other hand, he argues (rightly) that we shouldn’t...
What a Difference a Day Makes: The Post-Obliteration Day Yield Curve
Inversion deepens (see sky blue line vs. green line):
Figure 1. Treasury yield curve, %. Source: US Treasury.
Over time:
Figure 2: 10yr-3mo Treasury term spread (blue, left...
Private Credit: Replacing Banks for Business Loans?
In discussions of how businesses borrow money, there used to be essentially two choice: firms could either issue bonds or borrow through banks....
“the stock market has predicted nine out of the last five recessions”
As attributed to Paul Samuelson. So, with trepidation, I show the SP500 and CAPE over the last half decade:
Figure 1: SP500 (blue, left...
