Instantaneous CPI Inflation | Econbrowser
Rates are down, but not as far down as in mid-2024.
Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for headline CPI (blue), core CPI (brown), per Eeckhout...
Expect Drops in Interest Rates
The yield curve looks like this as of today’s close:
The EHTS implies that in 6 months, the 6 month Treasury yield will be...
“Recession” Odds | Econbrowser
Two observations: (1) market odds of a downturn have rebounded today, and (2) the odds are very similar across two platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket),...
Why Tariffs Don’t Cause and Won’t Fix Trade Deficits
There’s a fundamental misconception at the root of President Trump’s tariff policies, which is the mistaken claim that the existence of a US...
Grocery Prices Continue to Rise, as Forecast Path Steepens
From CPI release today:
Figure 1: CPI for food at home (black), USDA Economic Research Service forecast from January (blue square), from February (red...
Did Trump Blink? | Econbrowser
I see repeated references to this assertion. As Jason Furman points out, relative to “Liberation Day” announcement, he didn’t, insofar as the increase...
Ten Days that Shook the Financial World … But for What?
A recap:
For context, the 4/5 observation on EPU is the second highest value since 1985 (the first highest is 1/9).
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Alternative Business Cycle Indicators: Coincident Index, VMT, Early Benchmark NFP
Coincident index growth slows from 4.1% m/m AR to 1.7% in February.
Figure 1: Implied Nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (bold blue), civilian employment...
