Recession Now? | Econbrowser
When consumer sentiment drops as precipitously as it has (see here), then one has to ask if a recession is in the offing...
Economic Policy Uncertainty at Recorded Maximum
Latest updated data, 3/16 at 1074.
Figure 1: EPU (blue, left scale), and centered 7 day moving average (red, left scale), VIX (green, right...
The Russian Economy under (More?) Pressure
Bofit: “Economic imbalances weighing on Russia’s output growth”
From Bloomberg, “Ukraine Allies Agree to Step Up Economic Pressure on Russia”.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer...
Q1 GDPNow at -2.1%; accounting for gold imports guesstimate, -0.1%
That’s from today’s GDPNow release (Calculation: As of the 7 March release, the reported GDPNow was -1.6%, while adjusted was +0.4%; a 2...
“Are we heading into a recession? Here’s what the data shows”
That’s the title of an article by Jasmine Cui for NBC, citing me, Jeffrey Frankel (formerly on the NBER BCDC), and Dennis Hoffman...
Business Cycle Indicators NBER and Alternative, and GDPNow
Industrial and manufacturing production out today, retail sales out yesterday. All three are up, with IP +0.7% m/m and mfg +0.9% (vs. 0.2%...
Jeffrey Frankel: “Where next for U.S. economy?”
In the Harvard Gazette today, and interview with Frankel:
The latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment index shows economic confidence is at its lowest since November...
FT-Booth March Survey and the FOMC SEP: GDP’s Trajectory
The March FT-Booth survey is out; median q4/q4 growth for 2025 is 1.6%, down from 2.3% in the December survey. The FOMC’s Summary...
