What Fed Funds Rate Does Trump Want?
Compared to Taylor rule, according the to the Atlanta Fed Taylor rule utility.
Figure 1: Fed funds implied by Taylor rule. 3 ppts below...
(Fed) Credibility Lost? Bordo-Siklos 5 Year
We see reversion in the Bordo-Siklos measure of inflation credibility back toward pre-Trump 2.0 levels. However, we’ll see if this is recovery is...
Guest Contribution: “Global shocks, institutional development, and trade restrictions: What can we learn from...
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Jamel Saadaoui (Université Paris 8-Vincennes). This post is based on the paper of the...
So Why Has Rural Housing Become Less Affordable?
Many of the arguments for risings US housing prices relate to events in metro areas. For example, some metro areas like Manhattan and...
How Resilient Is the Consumer, Really?
I see this constantly remarked upon, so I wanted to check the data.
Figure 1: Consumption, 2017$ (bold black, left scale), Services Consumption, 2017$...
The Stock Market and “The Soft Bigotry of Low Expectations”
Trump announces tariffs of “only” 15% on Japanese imported goods, and the market jumps.
Source: TradingEconomics.
Subsequent accounts note the optimism that a deal with...
It Can’t Be A Coincidence!
Recently, co-bloggers Scott Sumner and Kevin Corcoran had a series of excellent posts on causation, coincidence, and identities (Scott’s post is here and...
Only Five Ways to Address Rising US Debt
Greg Mankiw delivered the Martin Feldstein Lecture at the Summer Institute of the National Bureau of Economic Research on the subject, “The Fiscal...
LA under Occupation: Macro Indicators for California
On June 7, President Trump federalized the California National Guard and deployed troops to LA. This followed instances of aggressively conducted ICE raids...
