Do All Creatures, Great and Small, and Made From Silicon, Have Rights? (with Jeff...
0:37Intro. Russ Roberts: Today is March 12th, 2025 and my guest is author and philosopher Jeff Sebo of New York University . Our...
Trump: “I couldn’t care less if [foreign automakers] raise prices because people are going...
From NBC via Bloomberg:
“I hope they raise their prices, because if they do, people are going to buy American-made cars,” he said, repeating...
Bordo-Siklos Central Bank Credibility, using Michigan Expectations
Using final March numbers:
Figure 1: Bordo-Siklos measure of central bank credibility, using 5 year Michigan expectations (blue). Assumes 2.45% CPI inflation is consistent...
James Hamilton: “Are consumer sentiment studies a good measure of the economy?”
Jim Hamilton (with others) answers the question in the San Diego Union-Tribune:
YES: Consumer sentiment is a useful economic indicator, though it is not the...
Term Spreads, Yield Curves, 28 March 2025
Big drop in one year to two year part of the spectrum suggests deceleration in growth in a year.
Time series:
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Why 2025 is not 2022 (Short-Horizon Recession Forecasting-Wise)
Reader Bruce Hall comments on this post showing the implications of a short horizon probit model of recession likelihood.
Perhaps I didn’t remember correctly,...
Near Horizon Recession Probability | Econbrowser
I run a probit regression of a NBER peak-to-trough recession dummy on contemporaneous Michigan sentiment (FRED variable UMCSENT, and final reading for March)...
Business Cycle Indicators for February: What Does It Mean When Consumption Falls while Income...
Personal income growth at +0.8% m/m vs +0.4% Bloomberg consensus, while consumption growth is +0.4% m/m vs 0.5% consensus. GDPNow adjusted for gold...
