Negative GDP Growth in Q1?
GDPNow as of today:
Here’s a picture of the level of GDP implied by these nowcasts and tracking forecasts.
Figure 1: GDP (black), GDPNow of...
Further Inversion of the Treasury Yield Curve
As of close today:
Figure 1. Treasury yield curve, %. Source: US Treasury.
Figure 2: 10yr-3mo Treasury term spread (blue, left scale), 10yr-2yr Treasury term...
Doug Irwin: “…bigger than Smoot-Hawley”
From Bloomberg:
“This is going to be much bigger than Smoot-Hawley,” says Douglas Irwin, an economic historian at Dartmouth College, who points to both the...
The AI Market Ecosystem – Conversable Economist
For users of AI tools, the discussion often focuses on the newest version of ChatGPT or Gemini or DeepResearch. But the point of...
