What a Difference a Day Makes: The Post-Obliteration Day Yield Curve
Inversion deepens (see sky blue line vs. green line):
Figure 1. Treasury yield curve, %. Source: US Treasury.
Over time:
Figure 2: 10yr-3mo Treasury term spread (blue, left...
Thoughts on the Trump Tariffs
It will take some time for the effects of President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement of higher US tariffs to become apparent. Here,...
2 April 2025: An Event Study
Odds of a recession in 2025:
Source: Kalshi, 2 April 2025, 8pm CT.
Polymarket confirms:
Source: Polymarket, 2 April 2025, 8pm CT.
The recession has been moved...
The Ocean-Related Economy – Conversable Economist
A new OECD report on “The Ocean Economy to 2050” begins its “Executive Summary” in this way:
The ocean covers 71% of Earth’s...
