Medicare: We Were Warned – Econlib
The year was 1965. I was a college sophomore. My family was middle class—not wealthy, watching the budget—and yet, health care was not...
Guest Contribution: “Miran, we’re not in Triffin land anymore”
Let’s revisit what is wrong with the international monetary and financial system. Stephen Miran, chair of the US Council of Economic Advisers, claims...
Entrepreneurship in Cuba: Uncertainty, Transaction Costs, and Stifled Potential
Note: The names of the Cuban entrepreneurs and their businesses described below have been changed to protect the identities of these individuals.
“Don’t try...
Kenneth Arrow on Health Care: It’s Not What You Think
As a health reform discussion lengthens, the probability that someone will cite Kenneth Arrow approaches 1. Close behind is the probability that this...
The Music and Magic of John and Paul (with Ian Leslie)
0:37Intro. Russ Roberts: Today is March 11th, 2025, and my guest is author Ian Leslie. His substack is The Ruffian. This is Ian's...
GS: From 25% Probability to Recession Call?
From Goldman Sachs, Sunday evening:
We are lowering our 2025 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and raising our 12-month recession probability from 35%...
Random Observations | Econbrowser
Inversion continues, with 10yr-3mo at same level as on 12/`6. VIX at 45. Kalshi odds on a recession at 68%, highest since trading...
Bill McBride/Calculated Risk on “Recession Watch”
Yesterday:
I’m concerned about tariff policy impacting the economy. Usually fiscal, executive and trade policy decisions wouldn’t lead to an immediate recession, but these...
Near-Horizon Recession Probability: Estimate for April 2025
Using data through March.
Figure 1: Recession probability 1 month ahead (blue). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Assumes no recession in March....
