Rising Expected Unit Cost Inflation Quantified
From Atlanta Fed:
Figure 1: Business unit costs (blue), and consumer prices (tan), year-on-year expected change, %. Source: Atlanta Fed, NY Fed.
Expected year-on-year changes...
Symposium: “Europe amidst Uncertainty” | Econbrowser
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at the Pyle Center, UW Madison.
1:00: Welcome and introduction
Mark Copelovitch, Director of European Studies and Jean Monnet Chair
1:05-2:30:...
WEO, PIIE, WSJ Forecasts | Econbrowser
The IMF is pretty upbeat on the US economy…relatively speaking.
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), IMF April WEO (blue square), WSJ April survey mean...
Guest Contribution: “How to Forecast a Recession”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the...
Nowcast vs. Nowcast: Tariff-Jumping Imports as a Factor
Goldman Sachs puts Q1 growth at 0.1% q/q AR close to adjusted GDPNow, while NY Fed indicates 2.58%. The St. Louis Fed “news”...
Annotated Graph of SP500 and Dollar
Including “Liberation Day” and “termination”, down 15%, and 7.9% (log terms) relative to post-inauguration peaks (through 4/22 close).
Figure 1: S&P500 (blue, left log...
Interview with Robert Barro: Empirical Macroeconomics
Jon Hartley serves as interlocutor in “Revisiting Empirical Macroeconomics with Robert Barro” (Hoover Institution, Capitalism and Freedom Podcast, March 25, 2025, audio and...
