Policy Uncertainty Watch
Data through yesterday, from Baker, Bloom and Davis:
Figure 1: EPU – trade (blue, left scale), EPU (red, right scale). Source: policyuncertainty.com.
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Taking Economic Policy Uncertainty Seriously
EPU has risen from a 2016-2024 level of 136 to a 2025 level of 430. Ferrara and Geurin (2018) find that a 90...
Nowcasted Equipment Investment Decelerates | Econbrowser
Why? Q2 equipment investment as implied by GDPNow of 5/30.
Figure 1: Caldara et al. Trade Policy Uncertainty index (blue, left scale), and nonresidential...
GDP and “Core GDP” Nowcasts
Where “core” GDP (per Furman) is final sales to private domestic purchasers.
Figure 1: GDP (black), SPF May median (tan), GDPNow of 5/30 (blue...
Measured Trade Uncertainty Spikes | Econbrowser
Graph for data through 5/30 for Baker, Bloom and Davis index.
Figure 1: EPU-trade category (blue, left scale), and Trade Policy Uncertainty index (red,...
Trump Predicts at Least 3% Growth
At least it’s mercifully less than the 4% that he promised last time (but 9% is more than last time)
This is what 3%...
Despite Upward Revisions, Sentiment Still Looks Pretty Poor
Final May figures for Michigan survey are out. As noted in the release, final figures are more positive with the inclusion of post-pause...
