Event Study: “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!”
I’m coming up on lecturing on Fed independence and time consistency etc. President Trump continues to provide (depressingly) many episodes to discuss. No...
How’s It Going? Trump on 8/9/2024: “Starting on day one, we will end inflation...
Here’s a visual sit-rep on prices for Americans.
Figure 1: CPI – all urban (blue), CPI food at home (green), AIER Everyday Price Index...
2025Q1 Stall Speed? Tracking and Betting on GDP Growth, Retail Sales Composition
GDPNow at essentially zero growth. Industrial production, retail sales (control) surprise downside.
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), WSJ January survey mean (blue), WSJ April...
Poland’s Economy Flexes – Conversable Economist
The economy of Poland has done very well in the last couple of decades, especially in comparison to other countries of eastern Europe...
“What soaring uncertainty means for the U.S. economy”
From Cui, NBC:
President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda has thrown the financial world for a loop for much of the past month. The on-again, off-again trade escalation with other...
Dollar Dominance No More? | Econbrowser
Steve Kamin in the FT, Goodman in the NYT, Krugman on substack, FT Editorial Board write on how Trump policy erraticism on erosion...
