Is the Michigan Survey a Fluke? Are Republicans Still Optimistic? Do Republicans See Inflation...
No. Yes/No. Yes.
Compare the U.Michigan survey to SF News Sentiment index and Conference Board:
Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index...
Retail Egg Prices Up, Wholesale Down for Now – Forecasts Up
The egg crisis of 2025 is not over yet — consider what happens if tariffs are put on egg imports?
Figure 1: Price of...
Inflation Expectations Explode, Sentiment Collapses (U. Michigan)
Preliminary data today:
Figure 1: One year inflation expectations, % (blue, left scale), and economic sentiment (tan, right scale). Trump administrations denoted by orange...
Why we cannot have nice things
Last September, I discussed the strange bidding war for a federal property called “the ziggurat”. At the time, the bids had risen to...
Instantaneous CPI Inflation | Econbrowser
Rates are down, but not as far down as in mid-2024.
Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for headline CPI (blue), core CPI (brown), per Eeckhout...
Expect Drops in Interest Rates
The yield curve looks like this as of today’s close:
The EHTS implies that in 6 months, the 6 month Treasury yield will be...
“Recession” Odds | Econbrowser
Two observations: (1) market odds of a downturn have rebounded today, and (2) the odds are very similar across two platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket),...
Why Tariffs Don’t Cause and Won’t Fix Trade Deficits
There’s a fundamental misconception at the root of President Trump’s tariff policies, which is the mistaken claim that the existence of a US...
