Is the Michigan Economic Sentiment Index at Recession Levels? Answer: Yes!
The current reading of 50.8 is below the 73.4 average reading over NBER peak-to-trough recessions dates (1990M01-2025M03):
Figure 1: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment...
Trump Blinks (For Now) | Econbrowser
From Bloomberg:
President Donald Trump’s administration exempted smartphones, computers and other electronics from its so-called reciprocal tariffs, representing a major reprieve for global technology manufacturers...
Economic Policy Uncertainty Hits Record High
Even if likely to be revised, it’s still remarkable. VIX down as high yield credit spread rises.
And here’s a picture of credit risk...
Cement In Africa – Conversable Economist
Cement is an intermediate ingredient for making concrete, which in turn is an ingredient for construction of roads and buildings all around the...
Is the Michigan Survey a Fluke? Are Republicans Still Optimistic? Do Republicans See Inflation...
No. Yes/No. Yes.
Compare the U.Michigan survey to SF News Sentiment index and Conference Board:
Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index...
