The Roller Coaster Ride Continues … EPU through 6/1
And it doesn’t seem like it will end soon, unless …
Figure 1: EPU – trade (blue, left scale), EPU (red, right scale). Source: policyuncertainty.com.
Source...
“Trump may actually want a recession…”
That would explain a lot. He’s not very effective at much, but he is effective at setting the preconditions for a recession. From...
Global Imbalances as Global Recession EWS?
EWS = “Early Warning System”. Jamel Saadaoui has an interesting blogpost, investigating whether the median current account to GDP balance — namely when...
Policy Uncertainty Watch
Data through yesterday, from Baker, Bloom and Davis:
Figure 1: EPU – trade (blue, left scale), EPU (red, right scale). Source: policyuncertainty.com.
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Taking Economic Policy Uncertainty Seriously
EPU has risen from a 2016-2024 level of 136 to a 2025 level of 430. Ferrara and Geurin (2018) find that a 90...
Nowcasted Equipment Investment Decelerates | Econbrowser
Why? Q2 equipment investment as implied by GDPNow of 5/30.
Figure 1: Caldara et al. Trade Policy Uncertainty index (blue, left scale), and nonresidential...
GDP and “Core GDP” Nowcasts
Where “core” GDP (per Furman) is final sales to private domestic purchasers.
Figure 1: GDP (black), SPF May median (tan), GDPNow of 5/30 (blue...
