Macroeconomic Implications of Premature Escalation in LA
ICE raids are concentrated in blue states, including CA, NY. These states account for about 22% of national GDP, at nominal prices (CA...
In Case You Thought Policy Uncertainty Had Declined
Remember, we’ve got tariff *pauses* (pl.), OBBB, debt ceiling limit, etc. Do you expect the folks in the present administration to have a...
Speak now or forever hold your peace
For 35 years, I taught economics at the college level. When teaching the theory of supply and demand, I would explain how a...
Michaillat-Saez Recession Indicator | Econbrowser
As noted in this post, the indicator detected a recession in March 2024, stayed above the threshold thereafter, so the implication is that...
“First thing we do, let’s kill all the beancounters” Part 3
Part 2 was during the last Trump administration. Some things never change.
From Richard Rubin in today’s WSJ:
Swagel, a mild-mannered academic economist, runs the...
May Employment Release: NFP above Consensus, Mfg below
+139K vs +126K Bloomberg consensus; private NFP +140K vs +110K. Manufacturing employment down 8K vs -1K consensus. But durable manufacturing production workers down...