Envisaging a 40% Decline in Long Beach Container Traffic
“LA County ports expect roughly 40% drop in traffic as Trump’s tariffs continue”:
Figure 1: Long Beach inbound TEUs by month (blue), and 40%...
Recession Now? The Message from (Final rev’d) Michigan Expectations vs. PMI and CISS
Updating this post, probability of recession in April is 72%.
Figure 1: Estimated recession probability from probit regression on (final) Michigan Sentiment (blue), and...
Rising Expected Unit Cost Inflation Quantified
From Atlanta Fed:
Figure 1: Business unit costs (blue), and consumer prices (tan), year-on-year expected change, %. Source: Atlanta Fed, NY Fed.
Expected year-on-year changes...
Symposium: “Europe amidst Uncertainty” | Econbrowser
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at the Pyle Center, UW Madison.
1:00: Welcome and introduction
Mark Copelovitch, Director of European Studies and Jean Monnet Chair
1:05-2:30:...
WEO, PIIE, WSJ Forecasts | Econbrowser
The IMF is pretty upbeat on the US economy…relatively speaking.
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), IMF April WEO (blue square), WSJ April survey mean...
Guest Contribution: “How to Forecast a Recession”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the...
