Safe No More? Two Pictures
Prepping slides for macro, found these interesting correlations.
First, how the strength of the dollar correlates with the Treasury 10 year yield, daily 2015-23...
More Nowcasts | Econbrowser
As of today:
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDPNow adjusted for gold imports, 4/24 (light blue square), GS, 4/24 (red triangle)), Wells Fargo, 4/25...
Guest Contribution: “China’s Electronics Exports, Tariffs, and Relocating Production to the U.S.”
Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The...
Republicans Seem Near-Impervious to Economic News
From the Michigan survey (final):
Figure 1: Expectations of future economic conditions for Democrats/lean Democratic (blue, left scale), for Independents (gray, left scale), Republicans/lean...
Business Cycle Indicator Sit-Rep | Econbrowser
A reader asks me about my 2025H1 recession call. I don’t have one, but here’s the latest depiction of indicators followed by the...
Envisaging a 40% Decline in Long Beach Container Traffic
“LA County ports expect roughly 40% drop in traffic as Trump’s tariffs continue”:
Figure 1: Long Beach inbound TEUs by month (blue), and 40%...
Recession Now? The Message from (Final rev’d) Michigan Expectations vs. PMI and CISS
Updating this post, probability of recession in April is 72%.
Figure 1: Estimated recession probability from probit regression on (final) Michigan Sentiment (blue), and...
