Q1 GDPNow at -2.1%; accounting for gold imports guesstimate, -0.1%
That’s from today’s GDPNow release (Calculation: As of the 7 March release, the reported GDPNow was -1.6%, while adjusted was +0.4%; a 2...
“Are we heading into a recession? Here’s what the data shows”
That’s the title of an article by Jasmine Cui for NBC, citing me, Jeffrey Frankel (formerly on the NBER BCDC), and Dennis Hoffman...
Business Cycle Indicators NBER and Alternative, and GDPNow
Industrial and manufacturing production out today, retail sales out yesterday. All three are up, with IP +0.7% m/m and mfg +0.9% (vs. 0.2%...
Jeffrey Frankel: “Where next for U.S. economy?”
In the Harvard Gazette today, and interview with Frankel:
The latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment index shows economic confidence is at its lowest since November...
FT-Booth March Survey and the FOMC SEP: GDP’s Trajectory
The March FT-Booth survey is out; median q4/q4 growth for 2025 is 1.6%, down from 2.3% in the December survey. The FOMC’s Summary...
FT-Booth Macro Survey on GDP Growth vs. Nowcasts, and Recession Start-Dates
The March FT-Booth survey is out; median q4/q4 growth for 2025 is 1.6%, down from 2.3% in the December survey (see this post for...
Vogue Magazine on Imminent Recession
From “Recession Blonde: How Economic Uncertainty Spurred the Latest Hair Color Trend”, March 17th:
What is “recession blonde?”
Recession blonde (or recession brunette) refers to...
