GS: “The goods trade deficit widened by $16.5bn, driven mainly by front-loading of imports...
That’s from GS yesterday. Question: Should one stock up on ibuprofen, because I anticipate a lot of headaches coming. Asking for a friend.
Of...
Why Is the US Economy Surging Ahead of the UK?
The US economy has emerged from the pandemic growing at a faster pace than the UK and other high-income countries. Simon Pittaway tackles...
Business Cycle Indicators – 6 May 2025
Monthly GDP is added to key indicators followed by NBER BCDC:
Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll incl benchmark revision employment from CES (bold blue), implied NFP...
Plain Vanilla 12-month ahead Recession Predictions
Probit regression recession on 10yr-3mo spread and 3 month interest rate:
Figure 1: Estimated recession probability using 1986 onward sample (blue), using pre-pandemic sample...
