ADP Below Consensus – What Does It Mean?
ADP private NFP change came in at -33K, vs. +99K Bloomberg consensus. It’s well known that the ADP series is not particularly helpful...
The Return (Again) of Supply Side Economics – CEA Edition
From CRFB on 6/25 “CEA’s Fantastical Economic Assumptions”:
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You Daily Reminder: Prices of Import Competing Goods Rise with Tariffed Imported Goods Prices
As per basic analysis of tariffs. Data through June 26(!).
Source: Cavallo et al. June 30, 2025.
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June FT-Booth Macro Survey: GDP level same as March Survey
Survey results here, FT article . GDP level more optimistic than May SPF.
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), FT-Booth June 2025 survey median (red...
Policy Uncertainty Spikes
As of today:
Figure 1: EPU (blue, left scale), 7 day centered moving average (red, left scale), VIX (green right scale). Source: policyuncertainty.com, CBOE...
The Deceptive Power of Maps (with Paulina Rowinska)
0:37Intro. Russ Roberts: Today is June 9th, 2025, and my guest is mathematician and author Paulina Rowinska. Her book, which is our topic...
