US Health Care Expenditures: An Ominous Trend Returns?
In the 2010s, it appeared that US health care expenditures as a share of GDP had peaked. But there group at the Centers...
The Weird and Lovely Surge of US Productivity Growth
In the long run, a rising standard of living is always and everywhere based on productivity growth. Thus, Austan Goolsbee notedin a keynote...
E.B. White on the Meaning of Democracy
I was recently reminded of the brief 201-word essay by E.B. White (1899-1985) on the meaning of democracy (which, I note, is subtly...
V.S. Naipaul on the Pursuit of Happiness
The US Declaration of Independence famously states: “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are...
Business Cycle Indicators – June Employment Release and May Monthly GDP
June NFP beats consensus on the back of education and health services employment, while private NFP surprises downside. With S&P Global monthly GDP...
Private NFP Downside Surprise | Econbrowser
+74K vs. +110K Bloomberg consensus. My nowcast based on ADP suggested +66K.
Figure 1: Private NFP, May release (black), June release (red), nowcast using...
ADP Below Consensus – What Does It Mean?
ADP private NFP change came in at -33K, vs. +99K Bloomberg consensus. It’s well known that the ADP series is not particularly helpful...
