Graphs from “Changes in International Economics: Do We Need to Alter Our Approach?”
New conditions, not new approaches. From my presentation (PDF) yesterday for MCFR:
Source: Yale Budget Lab, accessed 4/12/2025.
Additional 60% tariffs on Chinese imported goods.
This entry...
Alternative Business Cycle Indicators: April Manufacturing Production and Real Retail Sales Down
Both production and sales below m/m consensus.
Figure 1: Implied Nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (bold blue), civilian employment adjusted smoothed population controls (bold orange),...
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-May; Manufacturing Contracts in “Liberation” Month
Industrial and manufacturing production downside surprises.
Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll incl benchmark revision employment from CES (bold blue), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark through December...
Prepping for the Next Pandemic
If you are like me, you spend a certain amount of time trying not to remember the pandemic experience. But COVID-19 pandemic did...
Economic Policy Uncertainty since 1985, Impact on GDP
Monthly data, with May through the 13th.
Figure 1: EPU-News, average of daily data (blue). May observation through 13th. Standard deviation of log EPU...
