Core Inflation Nowcasted to Rise in June, July
From Cleveland Fed today:
Figure 1: Year on year core CPI inflation (blue), core PCE (tan), Bloomberg consensus of 7/11 (teal triangle). June, July...
Interview with Carmen Reinhart: Sovereign Debt, the US dollar as Reserve Currency, and More
Tim Sablik sets the stage for the conversation in “Carmen Reinhart: On twin financial and currency crises, the future of the dollar, and...
Who Ousted Hjalmar Schacht? | Econbrowser
From (1) Reich and Prussian Minister of Economics and General Plenipotentiary (1937), and (2) President of the Reichsbank (1939) (discussion, Kopper (1998)). While...
June Alternative Indicators Down from Peak
Civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept, manufacturing production, real retail sales, ADP’s private NFP, and BTS freight services index. The sole exception is...
Effective Tariff Rates *before* Copper & Brazil
From Yale Budget Lab:
Source: Yale Budget Lab, accessed 10 July 2025.
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Copper, Bolsonaro (Coffee): Predict Trade Policy Uncertainty for 7/10
Here’s the data through 7/9:
Figure 1: EPU-trade category (blue, left scale), and Trade Policy Uncertainty index (red, right scale). Source: Baker, Bloom &...
GDP Impact of 87.5K Removals/Yr
From Orrenius et al. (2025), GDP growth is down 0.81% in 2026, 0.49% in 2027.
These estimates based on a VAR(2) using annual data,...
