Business Cycle Indicators – A Turning Point?
Maybe, maybe not. With the employment release of Friday, here’re the pictures, first of NBER’s BCDC key indicators, and second of alternative indicators...
Consumers Vote on Economic Prospects
Durables consumption has experienced extreme volatility over the last 9 months (since the election). However, services and nondurables should follow the permanent income...
Agent Chaos Strikes – Multidimensionally!
Policy uncertainty through 8/1:
Figure 1: EPU – trade (blue, left scale), EPU (green, right scale). Source: policyuncertainty.com.
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August 1, 2025: A Day that Will Live in Statistical Infamy
As of 1:35PM CT today, the President has fired the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, within 6 hours of the latest employment release. So...
Is It Seasonal Adjustment? | Econbrowser
CEA Chair Miran asserts that some of the surprise in the employment numbers is due issues of seasonality. Can we see that? I...
Federal Statistics and False Economies
The federal budget for collecting statistics has been dropping for years, and the Trump administration is continuing that trend. The American Statistical Association...
Downside Surprise in Employment Levels
Tales from the Employment Situation release for July: (1) July Establishment employment change below consensus; (2) Revisions make trends slower; (3) Adds data...
