NABE 2025 Growth Outlook Downgraded from 1.9% (April) to 1.3% (May)

From NABE today:

Here’s a comparison to other forecasts.

Figure 1: GDP (black), May SPF (light blue), April WSJ (Red), March FT-Booth (green triangle), IMF April WEO (red square), May NABE (brown inverted triangle), GDPNow of 5/16 (blue square), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, Philadelphia Fed, WSJ, FT-Booth macroeconomists survey, IMF WEO, NABE, Atlanta Fed, and author’s calculations.

Proportion of respondents believing the probability of recession exceeds 50% in 2025 rose from 8% (April) to 37% (May).