No. Yes/No. Yes.
Compare the U.Michigan survey to SF News Sentiment index and Conference Board:
Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), SF Fed News Sentiment index (light green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. April U.Mich. observation is preliminary; April SF Fed News Sentiment Index for data through April 6. Source: U.Michigan, Conference Board, SF Fed, and author’s calculations.
Despite the 21 point drop from February peak, Republicans still view the outlook more favorably than they did in October (25.9 pts). On the other hand, Democrats have evidenced a sharp drop relative to October (65.2 pts), as have Independents (24.8).
Figure 2: U.Michigan Consumer Expectations overall (bold black), for Democrats (light blue), from Republicans (red). April observations are preliminary. Source: U.Michigan.
What about the split in inflation expectations. I pull a graph from the report released today:
Source: U.Michigan Survey of Consumers, 11 April 2025.
Inflation expectations have risen across the board (with Republicans rising from 0%(!!!) at the one year horizon.
