From CPI release today:
Figure 1: CPI for food at home (black), USDA Economic Research Service forecast from January (blue square), from February (red triangle), from March (green inverted triangle), on log scale. Source: BLS via FRED, ERS, author’s calculations.
Note the USDA ERS forecast is a time series analysis based forecast. It does not incorporate any assumptions regarding the imposition of tariffs. However, tariffs on fresh fruit and vegetables would likely push up prices further.
