Here today:
EC-CEPR-JIE conference, 7-8 April 2025, European Commission, Brussels
Opening Remarks: Geraldine Mahieu (Director Investment, growth and structural
reforms, DG ECFIN, European Commission)
Session I: “Globalization and Global Shocks”, Chair: Bjorn Dohring (DG ECFIN)
“Global Supply Chain Disruptions and their Macroeconomic Effects” by Diego Kinzig (Northwestern University and CEPR) and Ramya Raghavan (Northwestern University)
Discussant: Rafael Wouters (National Bank of Belgium and CEPR)
“Unstable Prosperity: How Globalization Made the World Economy More Volatile” by Enrique
Mendoza (University of Pennsylvania) and Vincenzo Quadrini (University of Southern
California and CEPR)
Discussant: Cedric Tille (Graduate Institute Geneva and CEPR)
“Capital Controls, Exchange Rate Arrangements, and the Transmission of U.S. Monetary
Policy: The Trilemma Strikes Back” by Jongrim Ha (World Bank), Haiqin Liu (Fudan University)
and John Rogers (Fudan University)
Discussant: Riccardo Degasperi (Banca d’ltalia)
Keynote 1: Helene Rey (London Business School and CEPR) Title TBA
Keynote 2: Silvana Tenreyro (London School of Economics and CEPR) “Optimal monetary policy and exchange rate regimes in commodity-exposed countries” with Thomas Drechsel (University of Maryland and CEPR), Michael McLeay (Bank of England) and Enrico Turri (London School of Economics)
Session II (Parallel):
A: “Dominant Currency”, Chair: Matteo Salto (DG ECFIN)
“Dollar Funding Fragility and Non-US Global Banks” by Philippe Bacchetta
(Universite de Lausanne and CEPR), Scott Davis (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) and
Eric van Wincoop (University of Virginia)
Discussant: Beata Javorcik (EBRO and CEPR)
“Demand for Safe Assets and Spillovers from the Global Dollar Cycle” by Cian Allen
(IMF), Rudolfs Bems (IMF and CEPR), Lukas Boer (IMF) and Racha Moussa (IMF)
Discussant: Georgios Georgiadis (ECB)
B: “Sanctions and Commodities”, Chair: Stefan Zeugner (ECFIN)
“Unpacking Commodity Price Fluctuations: Reading the News to Understand Inflation”
by Dimitris Malliaropulos (Bank of Greece), Evgenia Passari (Universite Paris
Dauphine and CEPR) and Filippos Petroulakis (Bank of Greece)
Discussant: Marta Banbura (ECB)
“Financial Sanctions lnteract(ed) with Trade Sanctions” by Christian Bayer
(University of Bonn and CEPR), Alexandros Gilch (University of Bonn) and Farzad Saidi
(University of Bonn and CEPR)
Discussant: Konstantin Egorov (University of Antwerp)
Session Ill: “Fragmentation”, Chair: Edouard Bourcieu (Chief Economist, DG TRADE)
“Trading Around Geopolitics” by Giancarlo Corsetti (European University Institute and
CEPR), Banu Demir (University of Oxford and CEPR) and Beata Javorcik (EBRO and CEPR)
Discussant: Dzhamilya Nigmatulina (University of Lausanne)
“The Fragmentation Paradox: De-risking Trade and Global Safety” by Thierry Mayer (Sciences
Po Paris and CEPR), Isabelle Mejean (Sciences Po Paris and CEPR) and Mathias Thoenig
(University of Lausanne and CEPR)
Discussant: Carolina Villegas-Sanchez (ESADE, ECB and CEPR)
“Playing with Blocs: Quantifying Decoupling” by Barthelemy Bonadio (NYU Abu Dhabi), Zhen
Huo (Yale University), Elliot Kang (University of Michigan), Andrei Levchenko (University of
Michigan and CEPR), Nitya Pandalai-Nayar (University of Texas at Austin), Hiroshi Toma
(University of Michigan) and Petia Topalova (IMF and CEPR)
Discussant: Thierry Mayer (Sciences Po Paris and CEPR)
Session IV: “Currencies and Geopolitics”, Chair: Philipp Pfeiffer (DG ECFIN)
“Labor Mobility and the Level of Unemployment in a Currency Union” by Erin Gibson
(University of Michigan), Chris House (University of Michigan), Christian Proebsting (University
of Leuven) and Linda Tesar (University of Michigan and CEPR)
Discussant: Tommaso Monacelli (Bocconi University and CEPR)
“Geopolitical Risk and Central Bank Reserve Currency Holdings” by Menzie Chinn (University
of Wisconsin), Jeffrey Frankel (Harvard University) and Hiro Ito (Portland State University)
Discussant: Leonor Coutinho (DG ECFIN, European Commission)
“China as an International Lender of Last Resort” by Lukas Franz (Kiel Institute for the World
Economy), Sebastian Horn (World Bank, Kiel Institute for the World Economy and CEPR),
Bradley Parks (AidData), Carmen Reinhart (Harvard University and CEPR) and Christoph
Trebesch (Kiel University, Kiel Institute for the World Economy and CEPR)
Discussant: Livio Stracca (ECB)
Keynote 3: Moritz Schularick (Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Sciences Po Paris
and CEPR): “Economic Insecurity: Import Dependencies and their Weaponization in History” with Martin Bernstein (Harvard University), Josefin Meyer (DIW Berlin), Kevin O’Rourke (University of Oxford and CEPR).
Session V (Parallel):
A: “Imbalances and Spillovers”, Chair: Christine Frayne (DG ECFIN)
“Granular Expectation Shocks and International Financial Contagion” by Kenza
Benhima (Universite de Lausanne and CEPR), Elio Bolliger (Swiss Federal
Department of Finance) and Margaret Davenport (King’s College London)
Discussant: Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi (Bank of England and CEPR)
“A well-crafted BEER: Identifying the fundamental drivers of real exchange rates” by
Mathilde Dufouleur (Universite Paris-Saclay), Mirjam Salish (DG ECFIN, European
Commission and Oesterreichische Nationalbank), Milan Vyskrabka (DG ECFIN,
European Commission) and Stefan Zeugner (DG ECFIN, European Commission)
Discussant: Martin Schmitz (ECB)
B: “Global Growth and Financial Markets”, Chair: Lukas Vogel (DG ECFIN)
“Different No More? Country Spreads in Advanced and Emerging Economies” by
Benjamin Born (Frankfurt School of Management and Finance and CEPR), Johannes Pfeifer (University of the Bundeswehr Munich), Gernot MUiler (University of TUbingen
and CEPR) and Susanne Wellmann (Unternehmer BW)
Discussant: Roberto Pancrazi (University of Warwick)
“Diverging Growth Trends, Current Accounts and Real Exchange Rates” by Adrian
lfrim (Joint Research Centre, European Commission) with Robert Kollmann
(Universite Libre de Bruxelles and CEPR), Philipp Pfeiffer (DG ECFIN, European
Commission), Marco Ratto (Joint Research Centre, European Commission), and
Werner Roeger (DIW Berlin and University of Leuven)
Discussant: Guenter Coenen (ECB)
Policy Panel: “Navigating Global Shocks and Geopolitical Disruptions: Macroeconomic and
Fiscal Policy Challenges” with Linda Goldberg (Federal Reserve Bank of New York and CEPR), Linda Tesar (University of Michigan and CEPR), Moritz Schularick (President, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Sciences Po Paris and CEPR) and Maarten Verwey (Director-General, DG ECFIN).
Moderator: Gernot Muller (University of TUbingen and CEPR)
Scientific Committee:
Kenza Benhima (Universite de Lausanne and CEPR)
Robert Kollmann (Universite Libre de Bruxelles and CEPR)
Gernot Muller (University of TUbingen and CEPR)
Philipp Pfeiffer (European Commission)
Mirjam Salish (European Commission and Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Stefan Zeugner (European Commission)
