A recent paper from the Center for Immigration Studies suggests that the answer is yes:
We preliminarily estimate that the number of illegal immigrants has fallen by one million since the start of the year, perhaps due to their leaving in response to President Trump’s election and stepped-up enforcement efforts. But it is important to note that these findings come with important caveats.
Findings:
- Based on the CPS, published figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that the number of foreign-born individuals in the labor force declined by 601,000 from January to May 2025.
- Our analysis of the raw data shows the total foreign-born population, both in and out of the labor force, declined 957,000 from January to May 2025. This is one of the largest declines over a 4-month period in the foreign-born in the last three decades, but it is not unprecedented.
- The decline was entirely among non-citizens. The number of naturalized U.S. citizens in the data did not fall from January to May of this year.
- Our preliminary estimate is that there are 14.8 million illegal immigrants in the country in May 2025, one million fewer than we estimated in January of this year.
But the authors include some important caveats:
There are important caveats about all of these numbers: 1) Though the decline in non-citizens is statistically significant, the decline in the total foreign-born is not. 2) Given recent stepped-up enforcement efforts, it is possible that the decline was due, at least in part, to a greater reluctance by immigrants to participate in the survey or to identify as foreign-born rather than an actual falloff in their numbers. 3) Finally, some of the administrative data necessary to estimate illegal immigrants is not yet available, making our estimate for May only preliminary.
Even supporters of the administration’s deportation policy seem to acknowledge that these figures could only be explained by self-deportation, as the figures on official deportations are far too low to significantly impact the total stock of illegal immigrants.
I looked at a bunch of labor market time series, and saw absolutely no evidence of mass self-deportation. Indeed, the labor force has grown at an unusually rapid pace of 1.6% over the past year:
This monthly survey data is relatively noisy, so I also looked at the monthly payroll employment data, which is considered more reliable. Job growth during 2025 continues at a rate of more than 100,000/month, which is consistent with a strong economy. If a million illegals had self-deported, you would expect a sharp decline in total employment.
I suppose it is theoretically possible that a million unemployed domestic workers rushed in replace farmworkers and maids that self-deported, but the unemployment rate actually edged up from 4.0% to 4.2% between January and May 2025.
The most plausible explanation for the survey results is that illegal immigrants are becoming ever more wary of responding to government surveys. I can’t blame them, as there have been cases of immigrants coming in for what they assumed was a routine immigration hearing, only to find themselves being deported unexpectedly:
Phoenix immigration attorney Nera Shefer said some of her clients came to court and were prepared to celebrate when federal lawyers dropped the case against them. Instead, they left the courthouse in handcuffs.
“It used to be getting your case dismissed was a celebration,” she said. “Not anymore. The government is given the opportunity to reprocess you under the new rules. That’s what it means.”
(1 COMMENTS)
Source link
