While the odds on a recession in 2025 have dropped from 69% to 54% in the wake of Trump’s 90 day pause, the predicted start of the recession has not changed much.
A 52% probability is ascribed to a recession starting in 2025H1.
The lack of a change with the announcement is perhaps less surprising when one considers that the combination of 10% broad tariffs and a 105% tariff on China yields effective tariff rates roughly the same as 10% tariffs with reciprocal tariffs.
I think it quite interesting that 29% odds on a recession having *last* quarter (as we’re in Q2).
