Two observations: (1) market odds of a downturn have rebounded today, and (2) the odds are very similar across two platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket), despite the fact the definitions of recession are different in the two markets.
Polymarket pays if either NBER declares a peak, or two consecutive quarters of negative growth in 2025, while Kalshi pays if there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025.
If bettors are arbitraging between the two markets, I wonder if they understand the distinction between the two payout conditions.
